Let's Hear It For Proper Science

The Institute of Health has released a study finding no relation between vaccines with mercury preservatives and autism:

The Institute of Medicine’s panel of prominent scientists pointed to five large studies, here and abroad, that tracked thousands of children since 2001 and found no association between autism and thimerosal.

While high doses of mercury can cause neurological damage, there’s no evidence that this type of damage causes the symptoms specific to autism and no laboratory or animal research that would prove how the much-smaller amounts in thimerosal could do so, either, the IOM concluded.

It is nothing but commendable that parents will look out for the best interests of their children. The danger lies in those who have agendas and wrap them up in scientific sounding jargon. From Glenn Reynold's Tech Central Station Article:

It's not the Bubonic Plague, but it's nothing you want. So what gives? Why did people abandon the vaccine?

The short answer is media hysteria and alternative-health shysterism. As Hoyt reports, dubious studies were seized on by anti-vaccination activists (described by Hoyt as "religious groups whose opposition was based on religious or moral grounds. . . [and] followers and practitioners of homeopathy, chiropractic, and natural and alternative medicine.") Those groups discouraged vaccination with scare stories, and the media picked up isolated cases of vaccine side-effects and -- by drawing a lot of attention to them, while paying little or no attention to the vaccine's benefits -- left people more afraid of the vaccine than the disease.

The result is that large numbers of people -- mostly children -- who might have stayed healthy have instead sickened and sometimes died. This is because some people were crazed, or dishonest, or hysterical, and others were stupid enough to believe them. (And it's not just in America and the West, or with whooping cough: Africa is facing a resurgence of polio as Islamic leaders encourage a boycott based on conspiracy theories.)

Modern America does not understand risk they way we used to. Thank God that we don't, because that understanding came from watching people, especially children, die. Too many people can be convinced to chase the chimera of perfect safety, and the result becomes less safety for themselves and others.

A Long Time Away

As Michelle at A Small Victory would have put it, I have been down for some mental mantenance for the past few weeks. Thanks to all of you who have stopped by during the slowdown. The best advangtage I can say about the lay-off, aside from actually liking life again, is that I finally had the chance to read Virginia Postrel's The Future and It's Enemies. If you haven't read it, I highly recommend it. It provided a vocabulary for so many of the ideas that I have been trying to communicate here.

Cliche Beyond Belief

Will the someone please tell the people behind the Sasser Worm that the name of their company: "Skynet anti-virus group" is so obviously a rip off of the Terminator franchise that it isn't even funny?

Thank you.

The First Report I've Read...

I have been hearing second hand that John Kerry had the respect of those who served with him. Now comes word of a letter signed by a large number of men who served with him that claims that he is unfit to be Commander in Chief. Read the whole thing.

Not That They Deserve and Good Breaks...

It would seem that there are some young men in the Washington D.C. area who are going to be missing some time at home for a while.

Supreme Court justice suffers minor injuries in assault

It would take a truly paranoid mind to come up with this being a case of deliberate coersion upon a Supreme Court member. I fancy myself to be a writer, so I am allowed that type of pondering. Or was it that I fancy myself to be a writer as a post facto justification for paranoia?

Link via Daily Kos

The Political Bell Curve

On a more distanced examination of Michelle's post, I liked the examples of the ideas from both ends of the Left/Right spectrm. The immediate result, the trainling ends of the bell curve to either side, at least the loudest elements of those tails, largely seem to be idiots. Short sightedness and obsessive focus seem to be the defining factors.

Shortsightedness is what leads to populating the tails of the Left/Right spectrum (whereas one has to look wide a very wide angle to have a reasoned opinion on the Libertarian/Totalitarian spectrum). The idiots for whom the first thought was "Goody, this is really going to hurt Bush," or "Wish I was there for the fun," are both judging the world through a very narrow set of values. The first is the home of the person who thinks that the sun will or will not rise the day after election day depending on who wins. The second is, if possible, a little scarier to me, in that the thought that they can devalue an enemy so much and allow that such a thing might be fun. Granted, both characterizations are over the top, but I sincerely believe that such views exist even if they were not explicitly cited.

A broader view of the world tends to create a more centrist position. I believe that it results from a person being exposed to a set of influences in which the majority of influences in one direction are countered by a similar influence in the other. By limiting their visions, or perhaps by simple bad luck of only seeing one flavor of influence, the extremist comes to a point where they self-censor any data foreign to their pre-conceptions.

That's my opinion, and, pending further data, I'm sticking to it.

Make an Example, With a Proper Trial

I am completely in agreement with Michele at A Small Victory. These pictures are going to push far more "heroes" into the fight against us than will be scared off by the idea that they might have these methods used against them. Congratulations assholes, lets hope you have a long time to think about this in the brig. On the silver lining portion of this cloud, this will give the military the opportunity to show the world how we do justice. If it would not set a precedent, I might even consider turning these people over to a war crimes tribunal in the Hague.

Priorites, People!

Will somebody please draft a memo that bin Ladin and company are more important to American foreign policy than Cuba? I am more inclined to believe that this is a case of institutional inertia at work than anyone thinking that toursim to Cuba is a critical security issue.

Note to the Treasury Department: I think that we can let Castro twist in the wind for a while yet. Focus on people who might be bringing explosives and other nasty stuff into the country, and I promise that I won't support the Castro regime by buying too many Cuban cigars.

Just Holding Up a Sign...

... That reads "Go thattaway." There's not much more that I can add to this post other than I've been trying to communicate these ideas to people for quite a while now.

USS Clueless - The truth is...

A word of advice, before you start reading, go to the bathroom and refill your coffee cup. You are going to be here for a spell.

Attitude Check

Please take a look at the following news story:

The Scotsman - International - Mystery group wage war on Sadr's militia

Now gage your attitude against the following chart:

a) Optimistic (People in Iraq do want a representative secular government)
b) Pessimistic (Just another group of thugs looking to carve out a power base)
c) Opportunistic (Hopefully the Marines will make contact with these people and offer whatever material they need)
d) Paranoid (Who you kidding? You know that its only a team of US Special Forces operating behind enemy lines)
e) Pragmatic (What does it matter why whoever is doing this, so long as it helps end the fighting quickly)

My answer: e

Link via Instapundit

For the Geek in All of Us

Not much happens in this little bit of Flash, but here's your chance to briefly wield the Light Sabres of the Star Wars Saga.

Link via Venomous Kate

"I Don't Feel Bitter At All, Why Do You Ask?"

Divorce can leave an ugly legacy. And I don't mean just the pictures. If you are looking for a particularly pricey wedding dress with a history check out this item on E-Bay quickly. Just keep scrolling downward.

Score One for Rummy

Via Instapundit.com comes this quote from a recent press briefing by Donald Rumsfeld. Making a note of how some in the media spin the news, he said:

There are two ways, I suppose, one could inform readers of the Geneva Convention stipulation against using places of worship to conduct military attacks. One might be to headline saying that Terrorists Attack Coalition Forces From Mosques. That would be one way to present the information.

Another might be to say: Mosques Targeted in Fallujah. That was the Los Angeles Times headline this morning.


Alright, maybe using the "Terrorists" word would be a bit too right leaning. Let's compromise and say Insurgents Attack Coalition Forces from Mosques. Still gives the proper initiator/responder correlation.

The Inevitable Gas Crunch

Via Vodkapundit comes this article:

Running On Empty (washingtonpost.com)

detailing the situation facing motorists in America. Living in Southern California, I'm used to habing to pay upwards of thirty cents more than the national average for a gallon of gas. What I did not know is that the US is not only a net importer of oil, but it is also a net importer of refined gasoline. Our refineries do not have the capacity to produce all of the gasoline we use. As the government adds more and more requirements for the formulation of gasoline, the fewer and fewer foreign sources will be capable of providing what we want to buy. I would doubt seriously that any of the gas that I buy in California is imported as this state has even tighter regulations than the national standards.

As a free-market libertarian, I'll bite the bullet and stick with my principles. The only way to ride the inevitable price increases is to let it happen. Much as I know that it will slow down the economy in general, allowing market forces to work things out will be the path of least pain. The article's reference to increasing the fuel efficiency mandates would be redundant as people will increase the importance of fuel efficiency in their purchasing as prices rise. Standard engine SUV's will take a big hit, with manufacturing in those lines facing lay-offs and reorganizing. The flip side of that is going to be a harder push toward hybrid vehicles whose efficiencies start in the 40 mpg at minimum, and bigger numbers in that stat will be a key selling point, so look for increases there.

I don't see much expansion in refinery capacity in the near future. The article points out that it takes three years, minimum, to go from planning to production, and that does not take permitting into account with all of its attendant political hassles. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are not likely, in my opinion to get much traction from this unless gas prices hit about $4 per gallon, and then add another five or six years at that level so that the switch-over costs are competitive.

You Call That Evidence?

Today just seems to be a day of random thoughts, so why not go with it?

The way in which a person's bias can be most clearly seen is in the way that person evaluates evidence. I had a conversation over the weekend in which the matter of Bush being AWOL from the National Guard was proven by the fact that Bush could find only one old man who was a general at the time who was obviously partisan while a pile of papers showing that he was paid, had signed in for meetings in accordance with regulations and had partaken of the required physical examinations were not proof to the contrary. While it was never said out loud, the implication was that all of the "evidence" to the contrary was false, that they were lies.

It has been said that the playing of the "Liar" card must bring to a halt any principled or useful discussion. That is because the "Liar" card gives its user carte blanche to disregard any point or article of evidence on its face because of its presenter, not on its merits. Accusations of lying deny the opposition any opportunity to add value to the discussion by requiring that the accusers acceded to any new information being brought to the table.

It is in this way that any bias on the part of reporters becomes important. By deciding what evidence is important to the way a situation truly is, the reporter is the gatekeeper. This has to be done before the information is even discovered, a process that decides which questions need to be asked. For many years, the product of this process was the sum total of all of the information that was included in the public debate. As the ages old computer axiom goes: Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Overcategorization

Humans always try to organize their world according to how things relate to one another. We are so good at it that the process tends to get carried away. I confess to falling prey to that tendency as well.

In politics, people slam each other with labels of right and left. If anything, I tend to the barest right of full on libertarian. When I see those who fall into the convenient left category and I listen to their arguments, I discover that I am getting lost more often than not. The problem is one of trying to fit too many points of view into an easy box. So, I'm putting out my list of apparent assumptions of various members of the "left".

George Bush (and his administration) is an idiot.
George Bush (and his administration) is an evil genius.
George Bush (ditto) is a Republican with all of the evil that entails.
George Bush (ditto) is not a Democrat with all of the goodness that entails.

This is a work in progress, comments, as always, are valued more than gold. Not really, and if you can find a way and actually send some gold, I'll be your friend for life.

A Question from One Too Young to Remember.

Take a look at the last things Sen. Kerry said in this transcript of his Good Morning America appearance. If I read the poorly transcribed words correctly, then he is saying that there is no difference between Bush and Nixon.

I'm all for parsing out analogies, so lets try this one on. George Bush has lead us into war in Afganistan and Iraq. Wasn't Richard Nixon the one that got us out of Viet Nam? Shouldn't that mean that Nixon was the one who did what war protestors like John Kerry wanted him to do?

Proper Use of Analogy

Reading through Daily Kos and a round up of Iraq news. Toward the end is a quote from Ahmad Chalabi. The issue is the ban on the Baath Party from any role in the new government. Chalabi said:

"This is like allowing Nazis into the German government immediately after World War Two,"

The poster then wrote:

Someone needs to tell Chalabi about Godwin's Law.

Godwin's Law pertains to the use of overheated rhetoric invoking Nazis in usenet discussions. The implication is that referencing the Nazis was unwarranted, an unnecessary analogy. Let us examine the parellels that Chalabi mentions.

The Nazi Party and the Baath Party were both lead by megalomaniacal leaders.

Both parties outlawed any type of democracy in their lands.

Both parties murdered mind boggling numbers of their own citizens.

Neither relinquished power willingly.

Both were banned from future government out of fear that they would sieze power again.

From the way it looks to me, this analogy is spot on. Certainly better than any of the Bush=Hitler comments I've seen on signs around town, and definitely not deserving of the snarky comment from Dem From CT.

I Couldn't Say it Better

It is always cool to find someone making the same point that I had earlier. The fun in this whole writing business is to see my ideas as they stand in the real world. I went on at length a couple of weeks ago about American Ideals and Interests in Iraq. The thrust was that the war in Iraq did not limit itself to being only about American interests or ideals, but was about advancing our interests through spreading our ideals.

Senator John McCain put it far more succinctly:

"In Iraq our national security interests and our national values converge. Iraq is truly the test of a generation, for America and for our role in the world. Faced with similar challenges, previous generations of Americans have passed such tests with honor. It is now our turn to demonstrate that our power, ennobled by our principles, is the greatest force for good on earth today. Iraq's transformation into a secure democracy and a force for freedom in the greater Middle East is the calling of our age. We can succeed. We must succeed.

We are trying to make our lives better by making other people's lives better. It may seem arrogant that we chose to impose this freedom on others, causing them some pain in the process. If one were to look closely at how things truly were under the Hussein regime, then what we have done is actually a relatively gentle cure for the sickness that was there.

Quote via Andrew Sullivan

Where's the Street?

During the lead up to the war in Iraq, I kept hearing references to the "Arab Street", the code for Mr. Mohammed Q. Public of the muslim world. Whatever reports we get out of that part of the world are largely unreliable, largely due to the ingrained fear of anything one says being used against them. What occurs to me is that the only terrrorists for which I have heard any great details about, namely the 9/11 19 and the upper echelons of Al-Qaeda, all seem to come from well-heeled, affluent families. Palestinian attackers seem to fulfill the prophesy of the street, but I believe that to be the result of having the enemy in one's face almost constantly. Those who would go across continents to strike at an enemy must be acting on a more abstract, disconnected from the here and now, level. If I recall correctly, all of the 19 were college educated. A cliche about a college education is that it expands your horizons. A person fighting off the pressures of poverty can not look very far beyond his immediate surroundings. If there is an enemy within sight, then that enemy can be targetted. If one has the leisure to pursue an education, then one can contemplate the larger picture and allow that people and places one may never see in person can influence one's life. From this pool are those who will be willing to "fight" in some far off land.

The Arab Street, consisting of those whose lives seldom reach past their neighborhoods, will have it's direct effect on very small scales. As such, it is a valid concern for the CPA. The longer that grievances are allowed to build with an easily identifiable target, the greater the opposition and threat to American troops. That anger, however, would be very difficult to turn to places very far from home. It is much easier to mobilise against a threat in one's own backyard, but much more difficult to go after a target on another continent. Only those who have been trained to think on a global scale can be easily recruited to carry out action on that scale.

Also, the elites who form the cadres of foreign action are more dependant on the street than the street is on them. If rule of law and free markets are successful in improving the prosperity of the Arab Street, then the theoretical lack of will to terrorism will tend to trickle up, either as a reduction of revolutionary fervor in the old guard or as a neuvaux riche class develops and subsumes the old guard.